Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 20 December 2014 - 27 December 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 6+ risk areas are Kermadec Islands, East Cape 3am 3pm. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty, North Wairarapa, Fiordland.
An initial shock on 20 December may be followed by a strong and widespread quake period from 23 -27 December. Lunar modulation may centre later activity around low tide. Global volcanoes may increase activity from 23 December. Watch out for global weather disturbances during the period. Forecast Update. 22 December, 09.14 NZST. Christchurch is now added to Mag 4+ risk areas. Summary. This forecast worked well. Lunar influence after 23 December gave strong global weather and tides. Malaysia is sinking under monsoon rains. An Airbus jet nearing Singapore was last tracked heading into a stormcloud. The big push of hot air from the equator has kept weather in NZ tropically hot through the forecast period. Multiple quakes rather than a single shock arrived early in the quake period. Christchurch was added as a Mag 4+ risk on 22 December. A Mag 4.0 was widely felt across the city on Xmas Eve. Quakes became widespread and tidal on 24 December and continued until 27 December when they stopped. Volcanoes began erupting on 22 December but picked up strongly on 27-28 December. Popocatapetl, Shiveluch, Colima, Etna. Bardarbunga is still huge. 20 Dec. East Cape 5.0, North of White Island 4.0, Antipodes Island 5.2. 21 Dec. Molucca Sea 6.6. 22 Dec. Kermadecs 4.6. 24 Dec. Tokoroa 4.5, Christchurch 4.0, Kermadecs 5.1. 25 Dec. Kermadecs 4.5, 4.7; East of East Cape 5.0, North Wairarapa 4.3, Mag 3+ NZ. 26 Dec. Kermadecs 4.6. Mag 3+ NZ. 27 Dec. East of Kaikoura 4.2, Mag 3+ NZ