Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 4 October 2018 - 7 October 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are Olivine Ranges, Pyke River, North of D'Urville Island, Feilding, South of Taranaki, Taumarunui, Ruapehu, Taupo, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Whakatane, White Island, Opotiki, East Cape, Northern Hawkes Bay, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, West of Masterton.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Te Anau, Motueka, Kaikoura, Ward, Cape Campbell, South of Wellington.
Heavy quake action north of New Zealand in recent weeks may continue during the period.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence=low.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Be careful.

Update. 5 October 10.00am
4 October.
Olivine Ranges 3.5 10.19am
Solar conditions arrived on cue but are weak and hardly even fluctuating.
Unless conditions change quakes will remain subdued.
Pacific is quiet but an isolated equatorial quake is possible

Summary.
4 October.
Olivine Ranges 3.5 10.19am
5 October.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.1 2.35pm
6 October.
Offshore North of Milford Sound 5.2
7 October.
North of Milford Sound 4.3 3.22pm
This forecast worked well.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but were weak and quakes hardly responded early on in the forecast period.
The North of Milford 5.2 was widely felt in the South Island and came very late.
Good location success from a relatively quiet period.
A new forecast for 8 October is being processed and will include North of Milford.