Pacific Summary. 9 January 2020 - 19 January 2020
Volcanic activity may increase. Manam, Nishinoshima, Shishaldin, Pacaya, Piton de la Fournaise, Etna. Update. 10 January 12.00am 9 January. Eastern Siberia/Chukotskiy Avtonomnny Okrug 6.3 9.38pm Eruption Shishaldin Mild spaceweather arrived on cue at midday. Typically for solstice, spaceweather conditions are mild. The forecasters have seen some great location names but this one is the best. The remote Eastern Siberia 6.3 location is home to reindeer, tigers and probably not much else. Additionally, quakes are rare in this location. Iranians are getting it in the neck with a series of moderate quakes along with brainless Trump. The ongoing eruption of Shishaldin was a no brainer forecast pick. The volcano has been providing ash eruptions and lava flows since early November. Vulcanologists at Indian Ocean volcano Piton de la Fournaise report expansion, increasing tremor and degassing but no eruption yet. A strong quake period seems unlikely from the mild spaceweather. Conditions remain strong enough to drive isolated quakes and eruptions. The forecast period is extended to 10 January. Update. 11 January 10.30am 9 January. Eruption Etna. 11 January. Northern Vanuatu/Malekula 5.5 9.06am Eruption Suwanosejima. Pacific quakes are generally subdued with mild spaceweather conditions during the period. Spaceweather continues today and may have built up enough energy to drive some mild late quake action. Good volcano and quake location success at Vanuatu and Etna despite the low activity, typical for solstice. No news for a heated up Piton de la Fournaise yet. The forecast period is extended to 11 January. Colima is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 14 January 3.30pm 11 January. Kermadec Islands 5.4 11.54am Eruption Nishinoshima, Kuchinoerabujima. 12 January. Puerto Rico 5.9 1.54am Eruption Kliuchevskoi. 13 January. Eruption Taal, La Cumbre The forecast period has turned strongly volcanic after a very mild quake sequence early in the period. Eruptions typically follow quakes in any period, often very late. Red flags dot the Pacific map as offshore Japanese volcanos go off, a major shield eruption begins at the Galapagos Islands and several other eruptions. Philippines volcano Taal is the only eruption to make news. Vulcanologists at another shield volcano, Piton de la Fournaise report the volcano is expanding and could erupt at any time. Pacific quakes have been busy but only at Mag 5. Biggest Pacific quakes during the period so far, Vanuatu 5.5 and Kermadecs/Raoul 5.4 less than 3 hours apart. Puerto Rico 5.9 was a big aftershock to the 7 January Mag 6.4. New spaceweather conditions are set to arrive tonight so volcanos may fire up again on 15 January. Quakes may also increase in frequency although high magnitude seems less likely. Atacama is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Southwest Pacific is higher quake risk. Update. 17 January 12.30am 15 January. Timor 5.5 8.55pm Forecasted mild spaceweather for 15 January has arrived late at midday 16 January. No major action has followed and mild solar conditions seem likely to fade away again soon. Biggest quake last two days Timor 5.5 was at least on the edge of Banda Sea risk location but magnitude is low. Philippines volcano Taal has made headlines with a moderate ash eruption. Many cracks are reported on the ground at the outer edge of the caldera. Additionally, local seismologists report tremor is high at the volcano and another eruption with lava is possible. More action at Taal seems likely during this forecast period or following period. No news for Galapagos Islands shield volcano La Cumbre. Vulcanologists at La Cumbre report that the eruption is smaller than the 2018 eruption and may end soon. Shield volcanos like La Cumbre tend to have high volume lava flows from fissures which suddenly stop and don't start again later on. The eruption at La Cumbre seems likely to end soon. Isolated Mag 6 Pacific quakes are possible on 17 January. Summary. 9 January. Eastern Siberia/Chukotskiy Avtonomnny Okrug 6.3 9.38pm Eruption Shishaldin, Etna. 11 January. Northern Vanuatu/Malekula 5.5 9.06am Kermadec Islands 5.4 11.54am Eruption Nishinoshima, Kuchinoerabujima, Suwanosejima. 12 January. Puerto Rico 5.9 1.54am Eruption Kliuchevskoi. 13 January. Eruption Taal, La Cumbre 15 January. Timor 5.5 8.55pm 19 January. Northern Papua New Guinea 6.0 5.38am This forecast period was dominated by mild solstice spaceweather and mild quakes but the period became heavily volcanic. The biggest quake of the period came early at an unusual location in Far East Siberia 6.3 at aptly named Chukotskiy Avtonomnny Okrug. Early action at Sicilian volcano Etna gave additional forecast success. The 6 month long eruption at Shishaldin was ongoing during the period. Quakes fell to Mag 5 on 11 January but biggest quakes were in Southwest Pacific risk locations. In addition to quakes, Offshore Southern Japan volcanos went off on 11 January, making for a busy Pacific day. A large Puerto Rico 5.9 aftershock on 12 January in the Caribbean Sea continued a busy period. Eruptions 12/13 January at Kliuchevskoi, Taal, La Cumbre made the period very volcanic. Taal was the only eruption to make mainstream news and some spectacular photos demonstrating the electrical discharge associated with eruptions and earthquakes. The Taal ash eruption followed a mild steam eruption about a month before and a forecast mistake not to include Taal in this forecast. The important and much bigger eruption at La Cumbre was in a remote Galapagos Islands location and never made news. Still no news for La Cumbre as this summary is posted but Ecuadorian seismologists reported a few days ago the eruption was smaller than the 2018 eruption when lava reached the ocean. Spaceweather arrived later than forecast on 15 January, the following Timor 5.5 was on the edge of the Banda Sea risk location. The forecast was dropped on 18 January as spaceweather faded away. Piton de la Fournaise was inflated during the period but no eruption. The volcano seems likely to erupt in a following forecast period. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
