Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 9 April 2020 - 13 April 2020

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Christchurch was woken by the only Mag 4 quake during the period as Pacific volcanos took over at the expense of quakes.
Weather was significant during the period with a strong supermoon assisting a big South Island storm.
Very rare low snow for April fell in Southland and very low on the West Coast.
The powerful Southwest storm and big supermoon tides made the biggest waves along the Wellington south coast for many years according to some locals.
Powerful Antarctic storms are becoming more common in New Zealand, driven further north by an expanding polar airmass, increasing Southern Alps snow in 2019.
The tropical airmass by contrast is shrinking, Pacific cyclones were only quarter of their long term average in 2019.
Lack of tropical rainfall is leading to North Island summer droughts.
Predictions from climate change experts following the January 2018 Cyclone Fehi Supermoon storm that cyclones would become more frequent haven't been met 2 years later.
9 April.
5km North of Lincoln 4.3 7.49am

Magnitude 5 risk locations are East Cape, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Northern Ruahines, Taihape.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Southern Hawkes Bay, Southern Kaimais, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, Taumarunui, Wanganui, West of Levin, North of D'Urville Island, Masterton, Cape Campbell, Upper Rakaia, Omarama, Doubtful Sound.
Volcanos quiet.
Supermoon (perigee and full moon) may modulate quakes to low tide.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 10 April 3.30pm
9 April.
5km North of Lincoln 4.3 7.49am
Moderate spaceweather arrived on cue and has faded again quickly.
Local quakes are quiet unless you live near Christchurch.
The 4 April New Brighton 3.2 indicated pressure and not including Rolleston as risk location with following spaceweather was a forecast mistake.
There is no indication for any more Christchurch quake action during the period.
Spaceweather may briefly increase again 11 April.
Quakes may pick up in response but a major quake spell seems unlikely, despite continuing lunar modulation.
Volcanos quiet.

Update. 12 April 4.30pm
Local quakes are below Mag 4 following the Pacific trend away from quakes and toward volcanos.
Mild spaceweather has arrived today, one day later than forecasted, and is likely to fade quickly.
Local and Pacific quake action seems likely to remain subdued.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible 13 April.
Mag 5 seems unlikely.
Tremor at Ruapehu has fallen for several days and an eruption seems very unlikely.
No news on Ruapehu crater lake temperature from the vulcanologists since 18 March...the lake is cooling.