Pacific Summary. 14 July 2020 - 19 July 2020
No location success with the 17 July Papua New Guinea 7.0 but the quake came at the forecast peak. Good location success at Tonga, the only other Mag 6 quake during the period. Ongoing eruptions at familiar volcanic hotspots made for easy forecast picks. Spaceweather faded away early, following a 14 July aurora. Several new volcanos are very hot and likely to erupt soon, including action at Iceland. 15 July. Eruption Etna, Suwanosejima, Nishinoshima, Ebeko, Sangay, Fuego, Semeru. 16 July. Panama 5.8 9.39am 17 July. Eastern Papua New Guinea 7.0 2.50pm 19 July. Tonga/Hihifo 6.2 3.32am Update. 18 July 12.00am 17 July. Eastern Papua New Guinea 7.0 2.50pm Extending the forecast period an extra day is justified from challenging spaceweather conditions. The forecasted 16 July quake peak has come a day late on 17 July. No location success however despite Southwest Pacific peppered with risk locations. More volcanos are becoming active during the period. Bulusan, Santiaguito, Raung are hot, degassing. Eruptions seem likely soon, the Spring aurora season is only a month away and quakes and eruptions typically increase. Spaceweather is now slowly fading away. The forecast period has probably ended. Update. 16 July 11.30pm 15 July. Eruption Etna, Suwanosejima, Nishinoshima, Ebeko, Sangay, Fuego, Semeru. 16 July. Panama 5.8 9.39am Eruptions at familiar hotspots are dominating the forecast period. Quakes are subdued. Spaceweather was quiet on 16 July, running against the expected pickup. Solar wind conditions may pickup and become fluctuating on 17 July. A late quake is possible before spaceweather fades away. Eruptions at several volcanos are likely to continue. Update. 15 July 11.30am Pacific quakes are quiet. Moderate spaceweather has eased overnight but due to pick up again about now. A buildup is underway. Macquarie Island is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Update. 14 July 11.15am Spaceweather has set in this morning and is enough to drive quakes and eruptions. Efate is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Forecast. Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, South of Fiji, Tonga, North Solomon Sea, Bougainville, South Molucca Sea, South Banda Sea, Java, Southern Sumatra, Yonakuni, Northeast Honshu, Aleutian Islands, Colima, Nicaragua. Volcanic activity may increase at familiar volcanic hotspots. Sangay, Fuego, Pacaya, Kliuchevskoi, Ebeko, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Nishinoshima, Semeru, Merapi. The period is likely to continue the 2020 Pacific volcanic trend. The period may build to a peak 16 July. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
