Aotearoa Summary. 1 May 2024 - 5 May 2024
Mild solar wind from Coronal holes 1218/1219 arrived on cue but without much strength. An unforecasted and much stronger solar windstream from a 30 April M9 flare from sunspot 3654 arrived 2 May 0000UTC, driving brief Kp6 auroras with many South Island viewings. The M9 flare was big but right near the western horizon and non Earth facing. Regardless some of the blast did reach Earth, fooling the forecasters. The 2 May Kp6 aurora extended the quake period to 5 May with mixed quake results. The forecast was heavily weighted on the Lower North Island and Upper South Island and gave reasonable risk location results. Not including regular risk location Fiordland was a mistake with too much focus on other areas. The period is likely to continue for a few more days as new and very active Earth facing sunspot 3663 has rapidly emerged and already firing double X1 flares. More geomagnetic storms, possibly Kp6 seem likely during the next 2 days as coronal mass ejections from the angry sunspot reach Earth. More strong solar flares are possible from sunspot 3663 so the period may extend even further. Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 during the period but Southwest Pacific seems likely to become busy next few days with the ongoing incoming solar energy. Local quakes are likely to continue. The forecast period is extended to 7 May. A new forecast map is being processed. 3 May. Doubtful Sound 5.1 7.59pm 5 May. Upper Clarence River 4.2 3.36am Eketahuna 4.4 10.24am Forecast. 1-2 May 2024. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Mahia. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Masterton, Martinborough, Hunterville, Eastern Taranaki Bight, Kapiti, Northern Tararua Ranges, Cape Campbell, Ward, Nelson, St Arnaud, Lake Sumner. Mild Kp4 auroras have been underway for 12 hours before this forecast was posted and may be linked to the 30 April West of Nelson 4.2 and North of D'Urville Island 4.9. Volcanos quiet. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
