Pacific Summary Update Updated. 6 May 2024 - 2 June 2024
In similar vein to the Aotearoa Summary, big Pacific quakes never happened during the original 6-7 May forecast period but have evolved at a significant number of Mag 6 risk locations over the following four weeks. The casual forecast rule that quakes still tend to fall in risk locations after the forecast period has ended is justified. A new quake period begins 4 June upon the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from old AR3664, now AR3697 following an X1, M7 long duration flare. 27 May. Northwest of Pangai, Tonga 6.6 8.47am 28 May. Northwest of Mentawai 5.9 11.52pm 29 May. Eruption Reykjanes Peninsula 31 May. Eruption Ibu 1 June. Prince Edward Islands 6.2 3.46am 100km Northeast of Raoul Island 6.2 3.54am Summary Update. 26 May 3.30pm Pacific quakes are very quiet in May, despite the big 10-11 May Kp9 brief aurora. A geomagnetic disturbance on 23 May has coincided with the Vanuatu 6.3 and local Te Kaha 3.7 within an hour of each other. 26 May. NW Efate 6.3 10.23am Forecast Summary. 16 May 10.00am This forecast was never updated due to the Mackenzie field trip to view the Kp9 aurora....it was worth it. There were other mistakes. Despite multiple M and X Class flares with coronal mass ejections from 2 May right through to 16 May there was in the end only one day of geomagnetic storming. It was a day like no other however with Kp9 auroras. Sunspot 3663 began flaring from 2 May, becoming the basis for the forecast. Despite multiple flares it never produced a decent Earth directed CME and eventually weakened on 7 May, giving no tectonic response on Earth. The forecast wasn't updated on 7 May due to the field trip but sunspot 3664 took over on 7 May, producing several X1 flares and Earth directed coronal mass ejections, restarting the period. The coronal mass ejections combined into a Kp9 geomagnetic storm, arriving at Earth on 10 May 1600UTC. The storm lasted just a day, giving no early tectonic response. Lack of early response in Solar Cycle 25 seems to be in direct comparison to Solar Cycle 24 when early tectonic response was normal. One theory for declining early tectonic response is that as solar activity declines long term it simply takes longer to charge Earth back up to a point where piezoelectric energy discharges up through Earth. A brief Pacific tectonic response arrived late on 12 May with excellent risk location success. Mag 7 seemed unlikely with such a short lived geomagnetic storm. Sunspot 3664 continued firing bigger flares right up to X8 as it went behind the western horizon but no Earth directed CMEs. The long period was tectonically weak but upper atmospheric X ray induced ionisation was ongoing from 2 May and disturbed weather has been predominant as jetstreams and other weather systems powered up. Tornados, thunder and hail in the USA, coldest early May in Eastern Europe are just 2 examples. New Zealand experienced an unseasonal early frost as jetstreams fluctuated with the X ray storm. A new sunspot rotating onto the eastern horizon on 16 May has fired an X3 flare... May is set to be a very busy month on the Sun. 6 May. North Banda Sea 6.2 6.33am 8 May. 10km West of Maewo 6.1 8.17pm 12 May. Offshore Guatemala 6.4 11.39pm 13 May. 20km East of L"Esperance Rock 5.9 6.43am Eruption Ibu Forecast. 6-7 May 2024. Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec islands, South of Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Hunter Island, Espiritu Santo, New Britain, Banda Sea, Mentawai, Southern Marianas Islands, Luzon, Aleutian Islands, Offshore Northern California, Offshore Guatemala, Titicaca, Atacama, Bolivia, North of Valdivia, South Sandwich Islands. Volcanic activity may increase. Purace, Reykjanes Peninsula, Bardarbunga. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Sunspot 3663 has fired multiple X and M flares with accompanying moderate coronal mass ejections. The forecast period may be extended. Note. The 6 May 0633 UTC North Banda Sea 6.2 occurred in the quake period but before this forecast was posted. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
