Updated Aotearoa Summary Update Updated. 6 May 2024 - 3 June 2024
More significant time clustered quakes have arrived just ahead of a new forecast period. New spaceweather is arriving as this summary is posted for the last time. A new forecast will be posted shortly. 3 June. 5km NW Mana Island 4.1 8.05pm East of East Cape 4.8 8.34pm Summary Update Updated. 2 June 3.30pm The wider summary period has produced some more interesting results. The biggest quakes during the period have come largely in forecast risk locations. Quakes haven't come during the original forecast period 6-7 May but have leaked out slowly over the following four weeks. Old sunspot 3664, responsible for the 10 May Kp9 aurora has returned as AR3697 and following the 1 June 1940UTC X1, M7 long duration flare has fired off a coronal mass ejection towards Earth. A new forecast period begins late 4 June. Will the next forecast period get stretched out for several weeks too? 24 May. White Island minor phreatic eruption. 28 May. Mt Holdsworth, Tararua Range 3.7 4.19am 29 May. 20km West of Kapiti Island 3.6 8.15pm 2 June. Offshore Doubtful Sound 3.7 1.46am Summary Update. 26 May 3.00pm The May forecast period based around the activity mostly of giant active sunspot 3664 was a great one for the sceptics when little action happened during the Kp9 geomagnetic storm accompanying major solar flares. Plenty of energy was absorbed by Earth during the storm but it is important to note that this storm didn't actually last long, only 24 hours. Additionally, there were only two brief Kp5/6 geomagnetic storms in the following days coinciding with the Masterton 3.9. The 16 May Kp5 storm and the 17 May Kp5/6 brief storms were followed by another geomagnetic disturbance beginning 23 May 000UTC A local quake period came with the 23 May disturbance with three risk location successes from the previous forecast period. The late quakes justify once again the casual forecast rule that quakes after a period has ended are still more likely in risk locations from that period. 17 May. 10km West of Masterton 3.9 9.04pm 23 May. Mana Island 3.9 1.36am Culverden 3.8 2.42am 20km East of Gisborne 3.5 8.18pm 25 May. 10km West of Te Kaha 3.7 9..03am Summary. 16 May 10.00am This forecast was never updated due to the Mackenzie field trip to view the Kp9 aurora....it was worth it. There were other mistakes. Despite multiple M and X Class flares with coronal mass ejections from 2 May right through to 16 May there was in the end only one day of geomagnetic storming. It was a day like no other however with Kp9 auroras. Sunspot 3663 began flaring from 2 May, becoming the basis for the forecast. Despite multiple flares it never produced a decent Earth directed CME and eventually weakened on 7 May, giving no tectonic response on Earth. The forecast wasn't updated on 7 May due to the field trip but sunspot 3664 took over on 7 May, producing several X1 flares and Earth directed coronal mass ejections, restarting the period. The coronal mass ejections combined into a Kp9 geomagnetic storm, arriving at Earth on 10 May 1600UTC. The storm lasted just a day, giving no early tectonic response. Lack of early response in Solar Cycle 25 seems to be in direct comparison to Solar Cycle 24 when early tectonic response was normal. One theory for declining early tectonic response is that as solar activity declines long term it simply takes longer to charge Earth back up to a point where piezoelectric energy discharges up through Earth. A brief Pacific tectonic response arrived late on 12 May with excellent risk location success, following a brief Kp5 uptick. New Zealand had a brief response a day after the Kermadecs 5.9. Local Mag 6 seemed unlikely with such a short lived geomagnetic storm. Sunspot 3664 continued firing bigger flares right up to X8 as it went behind the western horizon but no Earth directed CMEs. The long period was tectonically weak but upper atmospheric X ray induced ionisation was ongoing from 2 May and disturbed weather has been predominant as jetstreams and other weather systems powered up. Tornados, thunder and hail in the USA, coldest early May in Eastern Europe are just 2 examples. New Zealand experienced an unseasonal early frost as jetstreams fluctuated with the X ray storm. A new sunspot rotating onto the eastern horizon on 16 May has fired an X3 flare... May is set to be a very busy month on the Sun. 14 May. SE Atiamuri 4.2 8.50pm 40km SE Taupo 4.4 11.24pm Forecast 6-7 May 2024. Magnitude 5 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, NW Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Pyke River, Masterton, Tararua Ranges, Castlepoint, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, South of Kermadecs. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Mt Whitcombe, Mt Taylor, Lake Sumner, Upper Clarence, Ward, Cape Campbell, St Arnaud, Motueka, North of D'Urville Island, Kapiti, Tolaga Bay, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Te Kaha. Volcanos quiet. Spaceweather from Coronal Hole 1218/1219 is here and likely to be followed by several moderate CMEs from sunspot 3663. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
