Aotearoa Summary. 4 June 2024 - 16 June 2024

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Summary.
Extending the forecast period to 11 June was justified with the arrival of some weak spaceweather and a mild local quake response.
The forecast period right from the start was heavily focussed on the Southern North Island and the 11 June Otaki Forks 3.8 has made the forecast map look better.
Another brief Kp5 period has led to the 15-16 June quakes.
Forecast timing during the period was challenging with poor results but justifying the low timing confidence in the original forecast.
Quakes have tanked in May and June, evolving over a spread out time period with the patchy spaceweather.
11 June.
Otaki Forks 3.8 6.54am
West of Rotorua 3.8 10.48am
15 June.
Rolleston 3.5 5.45pm + swarm.
16 June.
25km West of Ruapehu 4.0 4.42am

Update. 10 June 11.00pm
Spaceweather arrived on cue but much weaker than forecasted, briefly reaching Kp4/5.
With no real driving conditions, quakes never evolved to any degree.
Regardless the NW of Atiamuri 5.1 was a reasonable risk location success and was widely felt in the southern North Island.
The Waiouru quake swarm may have been related to infrequently forecasted Taihape Mag 4 risk location.
Sunspot 3697 was very quiet as it crossed the solar disc but has flared strongly on 8 June as it neared the western horizon and the outer edge of a large wide coronal mass ejection from the M9 flare is likely to create a moderate Kp5/6 aurora on 11 June.
Quake risk locations haven't changed much so the forecast is extended to 11 June with the old risk locations.
Northern Paparoa Range, Reefton are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
6 June.
Northwest of Atiamuri 5.1 2.19am
Offshore Milford Sound 3.6 5.20am
Waiouru Mag 1.5 swarm

Forecast. 4-5 June 2024.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are East of East Cape, Tolaga Bay, Gisborne, Taihape, Northern Tararuas, Lake Wairarapa, Martinborough, Mana Island.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Atiamuri, Kapiti, Levin, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Central Cook Strait, Cape Campbell, North of D"Urville Island, Mt Taylor, Lawrence River, Upper Wanganui River, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Doubtful Sound.
Volcanos quiet.
The period may mimic the 6-7 May forecast period where quakes evolved slowly over 4 weeks but in forecast risk locations.

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