Pacific Summary. 4 June 2024 - 16 June 2024
A streaky quake and forecast period has evolved with the passing of sunspot 3697. Firstly the sunspot never really fired a coronal mass ejection directly at Earth although it has departed the western solar horizon after firing a very big but non Earth directed M9 flare and CME, followed by another big flare as it turned to the backside of the Sun. Regardless, Xrays have saturated the ionosphere during its crossing and world weather remains turbulent and cold. Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 during the period but with a deep sequence evolving near Bougainville which may evolve during the next forecast period. Several extended quake sequences at Pacific-Antarctic Ridge and Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge could evolve into quakes at Tonga, Kermadecs next forecast period. 16 June. NNW of Balleny Islands 6.0 12.27pm Update. 10 June 11.30pm Pacific quakes were subdued with the weak arrival of a coronal mass ejection briefly reaching Kp4/5. Biggest quakes did match risk locations however with good results in SW Pacific. The 8 June M9 flare from sunspot 3697 created a very wide strong CME and despite being near the western horizon a moderate Kp5/6 geomagnetic storm is possible 11 June. In similar vein to the Aotearoa forecast, risk locations haven't changed much so the forecast period is extended using the old map. Southern Kuril Islands, Northern Vanuatu are added to Mag 6 risk locations. 4 June. West of Tonga 5.6 10.00pm 6 June. Sea of Okhotsk 5.9 11.07pm 9 June. Pacific Antarctic Ridge 6.2 +swarm 9.48pm 10 June. Northwest of Bougainville 5.7 4.28pm Forecast. 4-5 June 2024. Magnitude risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Hunter Island, Bougainville, New Ireland, New Georgia, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Molucca Sea, South of Java, Northern Mindanao, Noto Peninsula, Hindu Kush. Volcanic activity may increase. Ibu, Kilauea, Reykjanes Peninsula. Timing confidence =low. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
