Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Forecast Updated. 17 September 2024 - 18 September 2024

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Spaceweather arrived on cue with strong but brief Kp7/8 geomagnetic storming as a partially Earth directed coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR3825 passed Earth.
A strong -20nTesla magnetic pulse was the only significant feature of the storm with other indicators, speed 550km/s and proton density 10/cm3 very moderate.
The strength of the magnetic connection is becoming the major change factor in Solar Cycle 25 as Earth's magnetic field weakens at an accelerating rate.
The brief arurora hasn't been enough to drive much tectonic activity so far even with a strong supermoon to modulate conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions have faded today which is good news with the potentially dangerous concurrent supermoon.
Local quakes were mild at best during the period which was very brief.
Quakes are increasingly failing to respond to geomagnetic changes during Solar Cycle 25 as solar activity steadily weakens over 2 solar cycles.
Despite forecast improvements in quake migration, quake forecast timing is becoming more difficult...
Quakes seem likely to be residual and weakening on 18/19 September.
17 September.
NW of Snares Islands 4.3 12.27am
Cape Campbell 3.6 11.26am +swarm
South of Kermadec Islands 5.0 9.00pm
East of East Cape 3.7 9.46pm

Forecast. 17-18 September 2024.
Magnitude 6 risk areas are South of Kermadec Islands, Offshore East Cape.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Eketahuna, West of Masterton, Mid Rangitata.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Gisborne, Mahia, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Cape Campbell, Amberley, Methven, NW Arm Te Anau, Milford.
Volcanos quiet.
A high energy proton storm is underway at the Poles following the 14 September X4 flare from sunspot AR3825. A coronal mass ejection from the flare is due to arrive at Earth as this forecast is posted.
Kp7/8 geomagnetic storming is possible.
Additionally a significant supermoon (apogee full moon) 357300km on 18 September may modulate spaceweather upward.
A Mag 5 quake period is ongoing South of Kermadecs and may extend to East Cape and along East Coast North Island during the period.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence = low.