Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Forecast Updated. 17 September 2024 - 18 September 2024

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Spaceweather arrived on cue with strong but brief Kp7/8 geomagnetic storming as a partially Earth directed coronal mass ejection from sunspot AR3825 passed Earth.
A strong -20nTesla magnetic pulse was the only significant feature of the storm with other indicators, speed 550km/s and proton density 10/cm3 very moderate.
The strength of the magnetic connection is becoming the major change factor in Solar Cycle 25 as Earth's magnetic field weakens at an accelerating rate.
The brief arurora hasn't been enough to drive much tectonic activity so far even with a strong supermoon to modulate conditions.
The forecast was complicated by the arrival of the Marianas Islands 6.3 and the Kilauea East Rift eruption as the forecast was being processed.
California was quiet during the period so far although the Texas 5.1 is on a quake migration path into California and possible indicator of more California quakes
during following quake periods.
Residual quakes are possible on 18/19 September.
Marianas Islands 6.3 11.36pm
Kilauea East Rift 1900NZST
17 September.
West Texas 5.1 12.49pm

Forecast. 17-18 September 2024.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tofua, Southern Vanuatu, Marianas Islands, Offshore Southeast Honshu, Offshore Hokkaido, Western Andreanof Islands, Prince William Sound, Haida Gwai, North of Los Angeles, Northern Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kilauea Upper East Rift.
A high energy proton storm is underway at the Poles following the 14 September X4 flare from sunspot AR3825. A coronal mass ejection from the flare is due at Earth as this forecast is posted.
Kp7/8 geomagnetic storming is possible.
A strong supermoon (full moon apogee) 357300km is due 18 September and may modulate spaceweather upwards.
The 16 September 2337NZST Marianas Islands 6.3 occurred as this forecast was being processed. Further Marianas Islands Mag 6 quakes are possible during the period.
Similarly the 16 September 1022NZST Haida Gwai 6.5 location may remain active during the period.
The 13 September Malibu 4.7 may evolve into more quakes north of Los Angeles during the period.
A strong quake swarm is underway at Kilauea Upper East Rift with deformation indicating that the rift is opening and an eruption possible during the period.