Aotearoa Summary 29 October 2024 - 5 November 2024
Weak quakes followed on 30 October. A new quake period began with the onset of new unforecasted spaceweather early on 4 November. Conditions were again moderate but slightly longer lasting. The casual quake forecast rule that quakes from a previous period are more likely in a following period, in this case unforecasted, has once again been met. The Cook Strait/Tory Channel 4.9 was widely felt and coincided with spaceweather and the forecasted risk locations from the earlier 29-30 October forecast period. Quakes mostly evolved in the South Island with several in or near the Cook Strait/Awatere risk location. Pacific quakes were generally quiet with a couple of Mag 6 quakes on 31 October. The period became very volcanic later on, following the forecast rule that eruptions tend to follow quakes. 30 October. Lake Rotoroa 3.9 7.47am Puysegur Point 3.8 6.57am 31 October. North of New Britain 6.0 1.18am Offshore Oregon 6.0 9.15am 10km North of Cape Campbell 3.6 3.17pm 1 November. Loihi 4.3 +swarm. 2 November. Eruption Stromboli 3 November. 30km South of St Arnaud 3.5 7.44am North of White Island 4.9 2.28pm Eruption Lewotobi 4 November. Offshore Tory Channel 4.9 3.58pm 5 November. Otehake River 3.6 11.34am Lower Arawhata River 3.8 5.30pm Forecast. 29-30 October 2024. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Northwest Arm Te Anau, Milford Sound, Lower Hollyford, Upper Rakaia, Lake Heron, North of Hanmer Springs, Awatere River, Clarence River, Cape Campbell, Western Cook Strait, West of Kapiti, West of Levin, North of D'Urville Island, West of Masterton, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Lake Taupo, West of Taupo, East of East Cape. Volcanos quiet. Moderate spaceweather from the 26 October X1 flare from sunspot 3872 is here as this forecast is posted. Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
