Updated Quake Summary Updated. 14 December 2024 - 21 December 2024
The period has probably ended, following a very significant and long lasting Mag 5 quake period in New Zealand, particularly the North Island. A cluster of Central North Island quakes came today. The period was busy in the Pacific with many Mag 5 quakes and the damaging Vanuatu 7.3 which collapsed buildings in Port Vila and lives lost. Additionally, one of the rainiest periods on record has evolved across Northwest Australia and Queensland as tropical weather systems powered up with the same spaceweather driving the active quake period. Record rain at Townsville and Pilbara. Spaceweather has only slowly faded since 18 December with typically late quakes in the North Island as solar wind falls back to background levels. Quakes tend to come at the beginning and the end of quake periods. 19 December. Havelock 4.0 8.25pm 20 December. 15km North of Waverley 4.0 11.18am Wanganui 4.3 10.20pm Taihape 4.2 10.21pm Summary Update. 18 December 8.30am Magnetic flux density has remained positive overnight with only one decent local quake at Maketu. Thats good news. Magnetic conditions fell briefly negative at about 7.00am this morning and the first significant Mag 5.5 aftershock soon followed in Vanuatu (just as a Kiwi there was being interviewed on Radio NZ) before swinging positive again. The high density fast moving shock wave from the 14 December solar filament eruption is still present today and beginning to weaken. If magnetic conditions change again then more quakes are likely in New Zealand and Vanuatu. This mornings 7.17am Vanuatu 5.5 aftershock was situated right on the coast and much closer than the mainshock to Port Vila. A Mag 2 quake swarm has begun in the Rotorua/Taupo area today and could grow to Mag 3/4 if magnetic conditions change. Cape Campbell, Kaikoura remain highest risk for further Mag 5 quakes. 18 December. 20km North of Maketu 5.0 4.44am 15km W. Port Vila 5.5 7.17am Summary. 17 December 10.30pm Mild Kp3/4 geomagnetic conditions from coronal hole 1262 arrived early 14 December and a local earthquake period evolved immediately. Coronal hole windstreams have been very weak in Solar Cycle 25 and quake periods have tended to be very weak in response. Solar Cycle 24 coronal hole windstreams on the other hand were much stronger and tectonic response was obvious and easy to forecast. Geomagnetic conditions have continued for several days with constant negative magnetic flux density. A strong geomagnetic shock has then arrived on 17 November 0430UTC from a filament eruption in sunspot 3924. This has come just behind the Vanuatu 7.3 at 0147UTC. A strong Cape Campbell 5.1 5.39pm NZST has followed. Geomagnetic conditions have swung back to +20nT late 17 November and quakes are unlikely unless they swing negative again. A continuation of the Mag 5 quake period in New Zealand is likely if geomagnetic conditions do swing negative. Mag 4/5 risk locations are Southern Wairarapa, Cook Strait, Clarence, Upper Rangitata, Fiordland. 14 December. SW Snares Islands 4.6 12.23pm 200km NNE East Cape 4.7 5.23am Offshore Gisborne 5.0 11.20pm 15 December. Rimutaka Ranges 3.9 6.32am 16 December. NW Snares Islands 4.7 5.23am 17 December. Eketahuna 3.7 5.40am Cape Campbell 5.1 5.39pm Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2025 |
